The disappointing gross domestic product (GDP) growth figure of 0,1% for the first quarter of 2025, released by StasSA on 3 June, comes as no surprise, as it merely confirms several months of muted high-frequency economic data that pointed to this likely outcome.

Prof Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says although adverse global developments earlier this year have also played a role, the weaker economic data was already apparent before then.

The widely anticipated decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to resume its interest rate-easing cycle by reducing rates by another 25 basis points (bps) is the right one.

Prof Raymond Parsons, economist of the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says the MPC decision of 29 May is welcome recognition of the changed economic circumstances that have made this possible.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s revised third Budget is a pragmatic one, given the current circumstances.

This is the view of Prof Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School. In commenting on the third Budget presented to Parliament on 21 May, Prof Parsons says that, as was stressed by the Finance Minister, various compromises and trade-offs have now been inevitable to achieve a workable balancing of the books that builds confidence.

The 1% rise in the unemployment level in the first quarter of 2025 raises another red flag about South Africa’s weak growth performance.

Prof Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says with the gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for 2025 having been progressively reduced by various institutions and economists to about 1,5% and below, it is not unexpected that this should now be reflected in higher unemployment levels.

The decision by the National Treasury not to increase value-added tax (VAT) on 1 May is the right one in the current circumstances.

Prof Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says after an intensive debate a rise in VAT was eventually seen to be unnecessary, and economically and politically it also failed to command wide support.

The bad news from the latest assessment by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of the impact of trade wars and policy uncertainty on the world economy is not unexpected. It nonetheless highlights the extent of the economic damage anticipated by recent unbridled United States of America (US) protectionism and its wider consequences.

In a timely Pitso webinar hosted on Friday, 11 April, the North-West University (NWU) Business School featured distinguished panellists who discussed the vulnerable status of African economies caught in the crossfire of escalating international tariff wars. As countries on the continent compete for both economic sovereignty and competitive advantage, the discussion focused on how the economic power struggle between the US and China is changing trade landscapes throughout Africa.

The unexpected decision by President Donald Trump to suspend the reciprocal United States (US) tariffs on non-retaliatory countries for 90 days pending further negotiations has prompted a strong rebound in financial markets and a modification of previous gloomy economic forecasts.

Prof Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says this decision now creates a welcome window of opportunity for many countries, including South Africa, to negotiate with the US for lower tariffs.

The scale of the further wide-ranging United States (US) unilateral tariff hikes announced by President Donald Trump will not only drive a huge wedge into the world’s multilateral trading system but is also bad news for the South African economy. 

The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to leave the repo rate unchanged highlights the role of non-model-based judgement in policy choices, especially in current uncertain circumstances.

Prof Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says this decision that was made by the MPC on 20 March was decided by a 4 to 2 vote.