As was expected, in the light of the prevailing elevated global economic uncertainties, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has again left interest rates unchanged for now.
Prof. Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says the decision on 26 March is an inevitable further pause in the recent interest rate-easing cycle of the SARB.
The better-than-expected headline inflation of 3% in February is welcome, but has now already been overtaken by a highly negative inflationary outlook.
In commenting on this easing in the CPI from 3,5% in January, Prof. Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says it is no longer only the external oil price shock that will have a likely future impact on the economy, but also the extent to which it will coincide with several domestic price increases on 1 April.
The South African municipal landscape is not collapsing in a single moment of crisis. It is eroding in slow motion.
Prof. Joseph Sekhampu, chief director of the NWU Business School
The recent escalation in the United States/Israeli war with Iran has now injected new urgency into assessing the economic and business implications for countries like South Africa.
Prof. Raymond Parsons, economist of the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says with the Brent crude oil price opening at over $100 a barrel this week, the Middle East conflict is widely seen as becoming increasingly protracted.
The good news is that, compared with gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of 0,8% and 0,5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, growth improved to 1,1% in 2025.
Prof. Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says the latest figures for 2025 that were released by StatsSA confirm that South Africa has been experiencing a slow and uneven economic recovery over the past year.
He says household spending continues to do much of the heavy lifting in sustaining economic activity.
South Africa must not underestimate the potential negative economic and business implications that could yet unfold for many economies as a result of the United States (US)-Israel attack on Iran.
Prof. Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says although it is still early days in the conflict, it is already evident that travel and tourism in the Middle East have been disrupted, with flights having been cancelled on a large scale.
The 2026 Budget positions itself as a moment of stabilisation after a decade of fiscal strain.
Prof. Joseph Sekhampu, chief director of the NWU Business School
The overall welcome impact of the 2026 Budget, introduced in Parliament on 25 February, on the economy will be positive and confidence-building. The markets will also price in what is a “good news” Budget in favourable fiscal circumstances.
Prof. Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has displayed a credible pair of hands in playing well the better economic cards he now holds to address the inevitable competing demands on South Africa’s still limited public finances.
The decision by the United States (US) Supreme Court that President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are illegal is a welcome respite for many countries, including South Africa, who have had to grapple with an aggressive US tariff policy in recent times.
By Prof. Joseph Sekhampu, chief director of the NWU Business School.
Every society organises its economy around a set of implicit bargains about power, access, and reward. Those bargains determine who enters markets easily, who must navigate layers of permission, who receives protection, and who absorbs risk. The labour market does not rise above this architecture. It reflects it.