The negative unemployment figures for the first quarter of 2026 are another early warning signal of the shock that the global energy crisis is beginning to have on the South African economy and jobs.
Prof. Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says that while the economy has some resilience and economic buffers, these buffers are limited and partial, with – for now – little room to extend them.
In the shadow of state capture, pervasive corruption, and eroding public trust, a vital line of defence remains: investigative journalism. In a recent panel discussion titled “Investigative Journalism in Defence of Democracy,” facilitated by the NWU Business School, columnist and analyst Khaya Sithole moderated a conversation with journalists Pauli van Wyk from Investec, Kyle Cowan from Media24, and Sikonathi Mantshantsha from News24 to unpack the difficult realities of holding power to account in South Africa.
The magnitude of the global energy price shock to the economy makes an extension of the partial petrol and diesel relief to further mitigate the impact of negative global developments inevitable and desirable.
The slight rise in the March headline inflation was expected at this stage. Core inflation increased from 3,0% to 3,2%.
Prof. Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says the full impact of the global oil price shock, together with the higher fuel and Road Accident Fund levies, adjusted carbon taxes and higher Eskom tariffs implemented on 1 April will only be seen in subsequent months.
• By Prof. Joseph Sekhampu, chief director of the NWU Business School
As was expected, in the light of the prevailing elevated global economic uncertainties, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has again left interest rates unchanged for now.
Prof. Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says the decision on 26 March is an inevitable further pause in the recent interest rate-easing cycle of the SARB.
The better-than-expected headline inflation of 3% in February is welcome, but has now already been overtaken by a highly negative inflationary outlook.
In commenting on this easing in the CPI from 3,5% in January, Prof. Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says it is no longer only the external oil price shock that will have a likely future impact on the economy, but also the extent to which it will coincide with several domestic price increases on 1 April.
The South African municipal landscape is not collapsing in a single moment of crisis. It is eroding in slow motion.
Prof. Joseph Sekhampu, chief director of the NWU Business School
The recent escalation in the United States/Israeli war with Iran has now injected new urgency into assessing the economic and business implications for countries like South Africa.
Prof. Raymond Parsons, economist of the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says with the Brent crude oil price opening at over $100 a barrel this week, the Middle East conflict is widely seen as becoming increasingly protracted.
The good news is that, compared with gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of 0,8% and 0,5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, growth improved to 1,1% in 2025.
Prof. Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says the latest figures for 2025 that were released by StatsSA confirm that South Africa has been experiencing a slow and uneven economic recovery over the past year.
He says household spending continues to do much of the heavy lifting in sustaining economic activity.