In the face of a daunting combination of economic and fiscal imperatives, Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana in his Budget Speech on 21 February gave a realistic assessment of the socioeconomic and fiscal challenges confronting South Africa, including a “high sovereign credit risk”.

This is the view of Prof Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School.

Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana is set to present the Budget Speech for the 2024/25 fiscal year on 21 February 2024. Providing insights into the anticipated announcements, renowned economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, Prof Raymond Parsons, shares his perspectives on what South Africans can expect from this crucial address.

Prof Parsons says budgets always require a delicate balancing act and the 2024 budget, although being crafted in very difficult economic circumstances, ultimately also remains an exercise in political economy.

There is still much “unfinished business” on the national agenda, including a more coherent overall economic plan for much higher job-rich inclusive growth.

In commenting on the 2024 State of the Nation Address (SONA), Prof Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, points out that, as expected, prior to the 2024 elections the SONA was inevitably largely a party-political statement and also took stock of the government’s achievements over the decades.

As was expected, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided at a fourth consecutive meeting on 25 January (its first meeting of 2024) to again keep interest rates unchanged and therefore higher for longer.

Prof Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says the tone of the MPC’s statement remained highly cautious, as it did not see the battle against inflation as yet having been permanently won.

The decline in the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth to -0,2% from 0,5% in the second quarter of 2023 was worse than expected.

Stats South Africa released the GDP growth figures for the third quarter on 5 December. Prof Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says negative factors have clearly dominated the positive ones to a greater extent than anticipated in that period.

As was widely anticipated, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) by a unanimous vote decided at a third consecutive meeting (and its last meeting of the year) to again keep interest rates unchanged, with the repo rate staying at 8,25%.

The all-encompassing and wide-ranging 178-page diagnostics of the South African economy embedded in the report “Growth Through Inclusion in South Africa”, prepared by Ricardo Hausmann and his team from the Growth Laboratory at Harvard University, is a timely and relevant document.

The further slight decline in South Africa’s unemployment rate to 31,9% in the third quarter of 2023 is good news, and the fact that total employment is now back to its pre-pandemic levels is welcome.

By Mbali Skosana

Prof Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says in the face of pressing economic and fiscal challenges, the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) offered a realistic but vulnerable fiscal picture for South Africa.

In commenting on the MTBPS that was presented to Parliament on 1 November by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, Prof Parsons points out that several of the fiscal risks outlined in the main February Budget have materialised and were recognised by the minister.