There was a time when superpowers fought proxy wars and the world teetered on the brink of oblivion. There was a time when men rode behemoths called Redstone, Atlas, Titan and Saturn to the heavens underneath hundreds of thousands of pounds of thrust, and the names Sputnik, Laika, Gagarin, Shepard and Glenn reverberated around the eastern and western hemispheres of our world. There was a time when two nations used their individual resources in a race for superiority with regard to what lies beyond the skies, for the ideologies of capitalism and communism, for Good ol’ Uncle Sam’s USA and Mother Russia’s Soviet empire. Oh, how the times have changed.

Last year saw a massive increase in the number of commercial space flights pioneered by billionaires Richard Branson (Virgin Galactic), Elon Musk (SpaceX) and Jeff Bezos (Blue Origin). 

“I think that we are at the dawn of an incredible inflection point in history for human spaceflight,” says Dr Pieter Kotzé of the Centre for Space Research at the North-West University.

“This access to space currently depends on the whims and largesse of a handful of billionaires. Despite some lofty rhetoric, the leaders of the industry still struggle to make the case that their rockets have more to offer than expensive trips for the rich and famous. ‘There is a surface attempt to make them appear as commercial science vessels, but they are much more like yachts or cruises,’ says University of Chicago space historian Jordan Bimm. So far, tickets to the edge of space go for six figures – $200 000 or more – while booking an orbital expedition costs up to eight figures.”

Kotzé cites Piyush Mehta, assistant professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at West Virginia University, who predicts that the space economy is on track to be valued at a trillion dollars by the end of 2030.

But, there are factors that should be heeded.

“Yet, space assets – equipment that is placed in space such as navigation, weather and communication satellites that serve our society daily – are threatened by space debris at low-Earth orbit around a 300 to 400 km altitude. This presents a real danger to commercial space tourism too,” warns Kotzé.

Although now more prominent than ever, investing in the private sector for space flight is nothing new.

“NASA has supported and invested in the burgeoning private space industry for decades, signing a variety of contracts for equipment and services, including with the once-fledgling SpaceX, which turns 20 in 2022. NASA is currently investing in Blue Origin and two other companies to develop designs for a commercial space station to follow the international space station (ISS). It is part of a long-term plan to support the private sector in low-Earth orbit, while reducing costs and freeing up more of the agency’s budget for long-distance exploration,” says Kotzé.

Where space flight once caught the imagination of the world, Kotzé believes that, just like the aviation industry, the impossible will soon become the norm.  

“If the 20th-century aviation industry is any guide, while these flights will begin as luxuries, prices will drop, and access to space will broaden beyond ultra-rich people as the market opens up and technologies and infrastructure improve. If you rewind to 100 years ago, it was not your everyday person using airlines that were just beginning to figure out how to fly routes around the world. But nowadays, for a very reasonable sum, anybody can hop on a plane, and they do not think twice about it. It is very safe. That is probably the vision for space flight. The long-term goal is to open up low-Earth orbit to become its own marketplace.

“I truly believe that seeing Earth from space is transformative and will ultimately help humanity and the Earth in unknown ways. You do not need to be a trained astronaut to go to space anymore.”

Then there are the numerous technological advances that have come to the fore.

“The re-use of rockets, pioneered and introduced for the first time by Elon Musk’s SpaceX company, reduced the cost of space flights dramatically. At the moment SpaceX is the preferred carrier of astronauts and supplies to the ISS. Right now, private flights seem to encompass multiple things at once: They are science missions, ecotourism expeditions, and yacht trips led by famous space barons. We have yet to see what the hybrid role of these missions are. We are at a cusp of a public grand opening of space.”

Space was once a destination reserved only for a few young men and women. That was a time that is no more.  

Dr Pieter Kotzé