“The broad realities faced by President Cyril Ramaphosa in seeking to strike the right balance between lives and livelihoods to cope with the current serious third wave of Covid-19 and its delta variant should be recognised.”
In commenting on the moving of South Africa to Level 4 lockdown on 28 June, Prof Raymond Parsons, an economist from the Business School of the North-West University (NWU), says that given where South Africa now finds itself with the pandemic, the government had limited options available.
“Nonetheless, the strict enforcement by the government of existing regulations and the limiting of numbers at risky large venues also remains essential if the present serious pandemic situation is to be turned around.”
According to Prof Parsons, these steps should be the major thrust of what is further needed regarding behavioural issues that are important to cope with the pandemic and not having to shut the economy down.
“However, coming so soon after the Level 3 lockdown measures imposed on June 16, cumulatively these further restrictions could now still exact an economic toll on certain sectors of the economy.”
Prof Parsons says it is therefore a pity that there was no indication of possible renewed support measures to offset the potential business distress and job losses that may now develop under the return to a Level 4 lockdown.
“The hospitality, tourism and liquor sectors, in particular, have now been subjected to new uncertainties and setbacks, which may not end after 14 days. Although there is a strong general economic ‘rebound’ underway from last year’s -7% GDP growth, the economy remains brittle. Many businesses, especially SMMEs, are still especially vulnerable given the economic damage arising from previous lockdowns and they may not survive the latest restrictions.”
According to Prof Parsons, it is clear from President Ramaphosa’s address that a successful vaccine roll-out must now be the “game-changer”.
“The fundamental solution therefore now lies in expediting the vaccine roll-out in tandem with other economic reforms. A rapid vaccine roll-out that mobilises the private sector on an even larger scale is the one single thing that could now make a major difference to lives and livelihoods. It then also makes it possible to remove lockdown restrictions sooner rather than later.”
He says there is now ample global evidence indicating that how well countries fare post-Covid-19 will be decided by how quickly their economies and societies recover from their respective lockdowns.
