The unexpected and disappointing gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures for the third quarter of 2024 confirm the extent to which South Africa’s growth prospects remain vulnerable to negative factors such as adverse weather conditions, weakened exports and other lagging sectors.

In commenting on the release of the growth figures for the third quarter of 2024 GDP by Statistics South Africa, Prof Raymond Parsons, economist from the North-West University (NWU) Business School, says the negative economic and other factors in Quarter 3 of 2024 have clearly outweighed the positive ones.

“To the extent that tough climatic circumstances have made agriculture the largest negative contributor to lower growth, there is potential for a future turnaround if weather conditions improve sooner rather than later.”

He says South Africa’s economic recovery is evidently slow and uneven. “Looking at the bigger picture, these negative growth trends therefore confirm why the GNU policy of seeking higher, inclusive, job-rich growth must remain the overriding priority.”

According to Prof Parsons, much higher levels of total fixed investment in particular are needed.

“High-frequency economic data remains mixed. The latest growth data suggests that the forecasts of already modest GDP growth in 2025 and beyond may have to be revised. Nonetheless, the clear message of the GDP figures for Quarter 3 of 2024 serves to reinforce the need for both the public and private sectors to urgently expedite the implementation of growth-friendly economic reforms.”