On Tuesday 5 November, Americans will cast their votes to elect the 47th president of the United States of America. The latest polls show that the current vice president and Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, has a slight, one point lead, with Republican and former president, Donald Trump, a very close second. This is a neck and neck race with no certain outcome, and the world waits to see who will lead the last global superpower from 2025 to 2029.
Across the Atlantic, South Africans also have a vested interest in the outcome of the election. Here is what two political experts from the North-West University (NWU) have to say about what a Trump or Harris victory will mean for South Africa.
Prof Kedibone Phago, director of the NWU’s School for Government Studies:
“We have already noticed several of Donald Trump’s domestic and foreign policy positions that largely prioritises the US during his previous administration. He focused his attention on growing the US economy. This also occurred against a backdrop of several threats to reduce funding for international bodies such as the World Health Organization (WHO), North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), and similar arrangements. His focus on the US economy, immigration, conflicts, and climate change is expected to be more aggressive.
There are at least two key issues to consider regarding Africa, including South Africa. The first is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade agreement between African countries and the US that allows duty-free access to US markets. South Africa is a major beneficiary, and its participation is largely a lifeline for AGOA. Excluding South Africa from AGOA would be both meaningless and counterproductive, though a Trump presidency might be expected to threaten this agreement.
Secondly, the US is one of the main trading partners for South Africa. A Trump presidency could mean that South Africa’s geopolitical positioning may be put under immense pressure to either choose friends and allies of the US to maintain favourable and friendly relations with the US.”
Kamala Harris is currently the vice president representing the Democratic Party and is likely to retain most policies of the Biden administration. She has already visited Africa, projecting a positive stance of her administration towards the continent, including South Africa. She is expected to support the continuation of AGOA with eligible African states that are benefiting from this agreement.”
Dr Sysman Motloung, South African politics and international relations expert:
“The 2024 US elections focus on issues surrounding racism and sexism, with some alleging that Donald Trump embodies these values, versus the restoration of reproductive rights, including abortion, championed by Kamala Harris. Trump has also been blamed for disrupting abortion rights in the US. However, he claims to protect women by addressing illegal border crossings and crime.
The US elections are a domestic affair, with both presidential candidates making strong statements to portray each other as unfit for the White House. Kamala Harris describes Trump as ‘unhinged’, a ‘fascist’, a ‘Nazi’, and even compares him to Hitler, while Trump retorts by labelling Harris a fascist.
For a South African observing this political discourse, it’s reminiscent of local rhetoric, where terms like ‘rented black’, ‘anti-revolutionary’, and amasela (thieves) are commonly used. Similarly, the Democratic Alliance often calls on South Africans to ‘save’ the country by voting the African National Congress out. In this vein, Harris urges Americans to ‘save the country’ by voting Trump out. Such is the nature of political battles.
Regarding what it would mean for South Africa if Trump or Harris wins, the impact is minimal. US foreign policy is generally consistent, and the US will remain committed to maintaining bilateral and trade relations with South Africa. Military cooperation between the two countries will continue. Trump, if elected, would not push South Africa to reverse its abortion rights simply because of his stance on the issue within the US. The US presidency will still expect South Africa to address the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey listing, and collaboration on combatting organised crime will persist.
The US has a vested interest in ensuring the US dollar maintains its status as the world's reserve currency. A close look at both candidates' platforms reveals a primary focus on domestic issues, with little emphasis on foreign policies that might negatively impact South Africa. In other words, life will go on, with much remaining the same.”
Time will tell.
Prof Kedibone Phago
Dr Sysman Motloung
