South Africa already knows which skills its economy needs. Prof. Linda du Plessis says the real failure lies in not using that information to guide university funding, enrolment planning and programme development.
With 8.5 million South Africans unemployed, graduate unemployment cannot be blamed on universities alone. The deeper problem is an economy that is failing to create enough jobs.
Graduate surveys have their limits. They often attract low response rates and capture only one moment in careers that may include further study, internships, entrepreneurship and changes of direction.
Universities can equip graduates for the workplace, but they cannot guarantee employment when economic growth is expected to reach only 1.6% in 2026.
The employment crisis begins long before students reach university: only 43% of learners complete secondary school on time, while fewer than 7% achieve more than 50% in Mathematics.
By Prof. Linda du Plessis, senior deputy vice-chancellor of the North-West University (NWU).
The Department of Higher Education and Training’s (DHET) admission that it cannot reliably identify which qualifications lead to graduate unemployment made headlines. But the problem is bigger than missing data. What will the evidence change? Can a survey accurately reflect an entire career? How will universities be empowered to act on the findings? And who will be held accountable for the outcomes? Unless the findings shape funding, policy and planning, another national survey risks becoming an expensive description of a crisis we already understand.
Most universities will agree that tracking graduates is methodologically challenging. These studies depend on accurate contact details and graduates’ willingness to complete surveys, often several years after leaving the institution. Contact information quickly becomes outdated, and respondents are not necessarily representative of the full cohort. Low response rates persist across graduate tracer studies, often falling below 50%.
The data provide useful snapshots, but a survey conducted shortly after graduation cannot capture an entire career. Graduates may continue studying, complete internships, change sectors, start businesses or enter fields not directly related to their qualifications. A first job is not a career and, while a tracer study is valuable, it is not a final verdict.
More importantly, South Africa already has substantial evidence on labour-market needs. DHET’s 2020 National List of Occupations in High Demand identified 345 high-demand occupations among approximately 1 500 registered occupations, including fields linked to the digital economy, energy, infrastructure, manufacturing, tourism and agriculture. The list was intended to shape programme development, enrolment planning, resource allocation and students’ choices. Yet there is little evidence that these data have translated into better national education planning or more responsive funding. The problem is therefore not a lack of evidence, but a lack of action.
The World Economic Forum estimates that 22% of formal jobs will be created or displaced by 2030. While the world of work is changing rapidly, universities remain constrained by rigid, slow-moving bureaucratic processes imposed nationally.
The scale of unemployment confirms that this is not merely a graduate problem. Statistics South Africa’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey for the second quarter of 2026 recorded 8.5 million unemployed people. The official unemployment rate increased from 32.7% to 33.6% in one quarter, employment declined by 16 000 to 16.7 million, and the number of unemployed people increased by 345 000. Does this reflect graduate unemployment, or a labour market unable to absorb people across all qualification levels?
Universities use advisory boards, professional bodies, industry consultation, career services, programme reviews and graduate surveys to keep qualifications relevant. At the North-West University (NWU), for example, every academic school is responsible for ensuring that its programmes remain academically sound and relevant. The NWU regards employability as a responsibility extending from curriculum design to the transition into the workplace. Career services connect students with employers through career fairs, presentations, guest lectures, work-readiness seminars and industry networking.
The NWU also promotes work-integrated and service learning, problem-based education, mentoring and entrepreneurship. Its entrepreneurship ecosystem provides co-curricular opportunities, while curriculum initiatives seek to embed innovation, creativity and leadership more explicitly in programmes and assessments.
Professional qualifications may lead directly to regulated occupations, while general degrees develop transferable capabilities such as communication, critical thinking, research, ethical judgement, digital literacy and problem-solving. Employment measures whether someone has a job at a particular moment. Employability describes the capabilities that enable a person to find, create and adapt to work throughout a lifetime.
Government policy must recognise the distinction. Universities should be accountable for curriculum relevance, academic quality and the development of employability. They cannot, however, be held accountable for jobs that the economy fails to create.
Universities’ ability to produce employable graduates depends on three external conditions: a strong basic education system, financial support for deserving students and a healthy labour market.
The crisis begins before university. In 2024, only 43% of learners completed secondary school on time. Among the most recent cohort, 60.3% completed Grade 12, while 29.8% of those who reached Grade 11 progressed no further. Approximately 405 718 children aged seven to 18 were out of school, and participation in post-school education among 19- to 23-year-olds was only 29.7%. Fewer than 7% of the Grade 12 cohort achieved more than 50% in Mathematics in the most recent year – a critical gateway subject.
The current NSFAS model is neither sustainable nor effectively administered. Funding is based on financial need and eligibility to study, rather than programme choice or performance in gateway subjects. South Africa needs a more flexible model that protects equitable access while giving universities greater decision-making responsibility. Free funding makes enrolment the goal instead of purposeful study. This is not about funding only qualifications linked to specific occupations, but about replacing administrative turmoil with shared accountability.
National Treasury expects economic growth of only 1.6% in 2026, following 1.4% in 2025, and forecasts growth of just 2% by 2028. It acknowledges that reforms in electricity, transport and water are needed to unlock investment, growth and employment.
Expecting universities to bridge unequal educational foundations, produce globally competitive graduates and guarantee employment in a barely growing economy is not a coherent national strategy. Universities cannot graduate South Africa out of unemployment. A graduate destination survey may show us where graduates went. It cannot explain why the economy had so few places for them to go.
Prof. Linda du Plessis
