• The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 projects that South Africa will generate more electricity from non–fossil-fuel sources than from fossil fuels.
• South Africa can reclaim its leadership position as Africa’s foremost nuclear power nation.
• The IRP recognises the urgency with which we must act in addressing climate change.
On Sunday 19 October, Electricity and Energy Minister, Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, outlined South Africa’s new energy transition strategy – the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) – which emphatically shifts the country’s energy reliance from fossil fuels to renewables, gas and nuclear.
The IRP sets the country on a 15-year path to diversify the national energy mix, modernise ageing infrastructure, and restore faith in an economy long constrained by blackouts.
At the heart of the plan lies a familiar dilemma of how to keep the lights on without worsening the climate crisis. Coal, which still provides 58% of South Africa’s electricity, will gradually yield to renewables, and together with distributed generation, this energy mix will make up over half of new installed capacity by 2035. The government expects more than 105 000 MW of new generation capacity by 2039, with 34 000 MW from wind and 25 000 MW from solar. Yet fossil fuels will not disappear entirely. Gas-to-power - 6 000 MW by 2030 - will act as a stabiliser, while a “clean coal” demonstration plant remains on the cards.
Perhaps most striking is the return of nuclear energy to the national conversation. The IRP calls for 5 200 MW of new nuclear generation by 2039, with potential expansion to 10 000 MW if a forthcoming Nuclear Industrialisation Plan proves viable. The government argues that nuclear offers reliable baseload power and industrial spinoffs, echoing a global resurgence that has seen 70 reactors under construction and renewed financial support from development banks.
Nuclear energy expert Prof Bismark Tyobeka, principal and vice-chancellor of the North-West University (NWU), former CEO of the National Nuclear Regulator and current member as well chairperson of the Ministerial Expert Panel on Nuclear, has lauded the new framework, praising it for both its environmental commitment and how it will reposition South Africa as the continent’s foremost nuclear power nation.
“I think the IRP 2025 released by the Minister on Sunday is quite progressive, especially in the sense that it recognises the urgency with which we must act in addressing climate change. I view it as a strong affirmation from the South African government that we have clear climate obligations to meet, and that reducing our carbon footprint is a vital part of this commitment.
“For the first time, the IRP 2025 projects that South Africa will generate more electricity from non–fossil-fuel sources than from fossil fuels. This represents a significant turning point, as we begin to scale down fossil-fuel-based generation and increase the contribution of cleaner energy sources such as solar, hydro, wind, and nuclear. To me, that is a bold and progressive step,” he explains.
“On a personal note, as a nuclear engineer, I am encouraged by the projection of 5 200 megawatts of new nuclear capacity. It acknowledges the crucial role that nuclear power has played in South Africa’s energy history. For more than forty years, the country has benefited from clean, safe, and secure electricity generated at the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station in Duynefontein in the Western Cape.”
According to the IRP, the first 1 200 megawatts should come online by 2036, with the remaining units added progressively until the full 5 200 megawatts are realised by 2039. This constitutes only the first phase. The broader vision is the development of a Nuclear Industrialisation Plan, a master strategy that goes beyond simply connecting new units to the grid. It envisions reviving the entire nuclear fuel-cycle value chain and could ultimately expand capacity to 10 000 megawatts in the medium term, once approved by the relevant government authorities.
“This would mark a return to the fundamentals of domestic nuclear capability by enriching our own fuel for peaceful electricity generation and for non-power applications. It would support not only power reactors but also non-power reactors such as the planned new multi-purpose reactor at Pelindaba, which will replace the ageing SAFARI-1 facility. This new reactor will strengthen South Africa’s position in producing radioisotopes and other nuclear-based innovations with applications in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing.
“It is indeed an ambitious plan, but I welcome the Minister’s pragmatic approach and its proposed implementation in manageable stages. Achieving the first 5 200 megawatts by 2039, with the initial 1 200 megawatts delivered by 2036, is a realistic target. Ten years is not an excessive timeframe if one considers that, for nuclear newcomer countries, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) milestones framework typically anticipates a 12- to 15-year process from planning to first electricity generation, including at least seven years of construction,” says Prof Tyobeka.
He further explains that: “Given the preparatory work already done by the South African nuclear sector - including Necsa, the Department of Electricity and Energy, and the National Nuclear Regulator, which has been modernising its regulatory framework - the timeline is achievable. We also have the National Radioactive Waste Disposal Institute fully operational and expanding its capacity, and Eskom itself has shown encouraging signs of financial recovery, recently reporting a profit exceeding R100 billion.
“The time is right, and the key players are ready. From our side, as members of the Ministerial Advisory Panel, we must ensure that implementation happens as swiftly as
possible. Our advice on the IRP should focus on achieving the shortest feasible delivery timelines while maintaining the necessary pace and scale of government action. Procrastination is the thief of time, and we cannot afford to delay further.”
The objectives are clear, the targets are set and decisive actions are now needed for the IRP to succeed: “We must move decisively to deliver the first new nuclear power unit by 2036, followed by successive units in 2037, 2038, and 2039, until the full 5 200 megawatts are connected to the grid. By then, South Africa will have reclaimed its leadership position as Africa’s foremost nuclear power nation.”
