Prof. André Duvenhage
US President Donald Trump’s stated interest in the annexation of Greenland has escalated into a geopolitical flashpoint that threatens to strain the cohesion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
In early January, US authorities detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and transferred them to the United States on charges related to drug trafficking and narco-terrorism, raising renewed concerns about Washington’s approach to the sovereignty of nation states.
What the next move of the commander in chief of the world’s last remaining superpower might be remains uncertain. However, according to Prof. André Duvenhage, a political analyst at the North-West University (NWU), Trump has already begun to reshape the global order through a distinctive combination of coercive diplomacy and assertive power politics.
“We are witnessing a changing world order, and increasingly the defining feature is that the period we know, or have come to know, as the Cold War era has finally come to an end. The first major break was in 1991 with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dynamics that followed. However, what we are entering now may be even more significant,” says Duvenhage.
“What is clear is that one of the outcomes is that the United States of America is defining its own path. It is not particularly concerned about NATO. The approach is very much “America first”. Why, from this perspective, should it defend Europe if Europe does not take responsibility for itself?
“Clearly, a divide is developing between the United States on the one side and leading Western countries such as France, Germany, Britain and Spain, with Italy perhaps a slight exception, although I believe Italy will also align with the broader Western European position. I have no doubt that some form of conflict will emerge from this.
Another outcome is that America is increasingly being seen as an adversary, even within parts of the Western world. It is interesting that a country like Canada, and particularly since Trump’s second term, now has a relationship with the United States that is at an all-time low, and is actively negotiating arrangements with China. All of this forms part of a broader pattern of the reconstitution of the world order,” he explains.
Duvenhage further attests that, at this point in his term, it is difficult to assess the merits or demerits of Trump’s initiatives.
“There is no doubt that, on the negative side, relationships with the West, particularly with traditional Western partners, are in decline. If one looks at the broader history of the United States, it is evident that it has often leaned more towards isolation than towards direct cooperation, as was the case in the period following the Second World War. This represents a significant drawback. I also believe that Donald Trump, in terms of leadership style, is not building bridges. His approach counts against him in many respects. I am also picking up growing resistance within the United States itself against the Trump administration. In this regard, it will be interesting to see what happens towards the end of the year during the midterm elections and how that political dynamic unfolds.
Another important development is that the United Nations is becoming increasingly critical, particularly with regard to developments in Venezuela and the possibility of future American involvement in Iran.
“This dynamic has not yet fully played itself out, but there is little doubt that the United States may become involved, either directly or indirectly. In this context, it will most likely align closely with Israel. The Americans would probably play a strategic role, providing strategic weapons and intelligence, while the Israelis would adopt a more tactical approach, particularly through air operations. However, it appears that this initiative has, for the moment, been halted. The reasons for this are unclear, as Trump has not provided a clear explanation.”
Trump’s insular tendencies have, according to Duvenhage, not been without reward for his citizens at home.
“On the positive side, it is true that Trump introduced a number of reforms within the United States. He reduced the tax burden, meaning that people are paying lower taxes, particularly when compared to Western European and Scandinavian countries. This has made the United States more attractive for investment and has supported patterns of economic growth. Through his initiatives, he also ensured greater access to crude oil, particularly in relation to Venezuela, which has had a major influence on the global oil market, with significant negative implications for China. China finds itself in a difficult position, as an estimated 80 to 90 per cent of its crude oil supplies come from either Venezuela or Iran. Iran itself is in the midst of what could be described as a revolutionary situation, if one is to believe current reports on social media.
“In this sense, one could regard these developments as positive in terms of putting America first. Cutting off or restricting oil supply lines, combined with the fact that Ukraine is currently targeting energy infrastructure within Russia, has placed the adversaries of the United States in a very difficult position. I have not seen, in any recent period of history, a situation where, within the space of a single year, the opponents of the United States were undermined to the extent that occurred during 2025. From this perspective, many people may regard this as a significant success.
However, this needs to be balanced, as to a large extent it is a case of six of one and half a dozen of the other.
Looking at South Africa’s global position in this changing world order, Duvenhage is not optimistic: “Finally, it is interesting to observe how South Africa’s position is being redefined within the changing world order. South Africa’s international support base is declining sharply, with far reaching implications for both its politics and its economy, and particularly for the African National Congress. There is little doubt that Trump has had a significant influence on this process, and I believe that there is more to come in the future.”
One year ago, to the day on 20 January 2025, Donald Trump began his second term as president of the United States of America. In a single year, the world has irrevocably changed due to his presidency. What will the next three years bring?
