When the Minister of Finance tables the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on 21 October, one test will be whether it delivers on a promise made to South Africa’s youngest children.
In February’s State of the Nation Address, President Cyril Ramaphosa set a goal of ending child stunting by 2030. More than a quarter of children under five are too short for their age. He said the mini-budget would set out a clear allocation for the plan.
“The first thousand days, from conception to a child’s second birthday, are a critical window for growth and brain development. Stunting that sets in during this window is largely irreversible,” says Prof. Christine Taljaard-Krugell, a registered dietitian and associate professor at the North-West University (NWU). “The allocation for ending stunting by 2030 will show the level of political commitment. A mission with no budget line is a hope, not a plan.”
ECD spending: bigger, but smaller than promised
At first glance, the budget allocation for early childhood development (ECD) looks good. Spending is set to grow from R12.2 billion last year (2025/26) to R18 billion in 2028/29, enough to reach an additional 300 000 children.
However, much of that money had already been announced. Last year’s Budget provided for R13.6 billion for ECD in 2025/26, but the revised figure is R12.2 billion. For 2026/27, it provided for R15.4 billion, while the new Budget allocates R14.9 billion.
A separate allocation of R772 million over three years, including R248 million this year, is set aside for a pilot programme to feed children at low-fee ECD centres in the Eastern Cape. Funding for the pilot was first included in the budget in 2024. Two years later, it has yet to start. The Department of Basic Education first advertised the tender for a service provider in March, and the closing date has since been extended to 23 October, two days after the mini-budget.
The money can be found
The constraint is not only fiscal. Between April and June, the government forwent R17.2 billion in fuel levy revenue to soften the oil price shock. NWU economist Prof. Waldo Krugell estimates that only about R1 billion of that relief, less than 6%, reached the poorest 40% of households.
“That one quarter of fuel relief would pay for the ECD nutrition pilot for more than sixty years,” says Krugell. “When government decides something is urgent, it finds the money within weeks. The question on 21 October is whether hungry toddlers count as urgent.”
What to watch on 21 October
The two experts say the mini-budget should set out:
A rand amount for the stunting mission, broken down by department, rather than previously announced ECD totals.
An account of what has been spent. This should explain what has happened to the pilot funding budgeted since 2024, when children will receive their first meal and how much of the ECD budget has reached centres on time. A new costing by PMBEJD and Zero2Five estimates that the R9.60 per day allocated for food under the ECD subsidy falls short of the R11.92 needed to provide a child with a nutritious menu.
Support before birth. This should include a pilot maternal support grant for pregnant women that converts to the Child Support Grant when the birth is registered.
A path for increasing the Child Support Grant. At R580 a month, it remains well below the food poverty line of R868 per person. The two experts suggest closing the gap over two to three years.
“We made these proposals in February,” says Taljaard-Krugell. “Government has its own deadline. The Treasury can show the plan is real by putting a number next to it.”
Prof. Christine Taljaard-Krugell
Prof. Waldo Krugell
