South Africa is a top carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitter in Africa, and new research explores how the country’s energy choices shape its sustainability path.

Shivangi Nilan Patel, a recent cum laude graduate of the North-West University (NWU), investigated the effect of hydroelectricity and natural gas consumption on environmental sustainability in South Africa from 1981 to 2021. Her study focused on how these energy sources influence CO₂ emissions, which she used as a measure of environmental sustainability.

Shivangi analysed key variables, including real GDP growth, trade openness, hydroelectricity consumption, and natural gas consumption. She employed the Dynamic Novel ARDL stimulation method, the Kernel-based regularised least squares technique, and frequency domain causality analysis to assess the short-, medium-, and long-term relationships.

“The study shows that hydroelectricity consumption lowers CO₂ emissions,” Shivangi said. “This suggests that hydroelectricity supports environmental sustainability in South Africa.”

However, the findings also revealed a different trend for natural gas. Shivangi explained: “Natural gas consumption displays changing effects that increase environmental pressure. This shows a need for clear and planned long-term strategies.”

Her research highlights the complex link between energy use and environmental outcomes in the country. Shivangi noted that the machine learning model used in the study strengthened the reliability of the findings. “The Kernel-based regularised least squares tool confirms non-linear relationships driven by changes in energy and economic policies.”

The results also showed specific interaction patterns across time. “Frequency domain causality analysis points to periodic energy-environment relationships,” Shivangi added.

Despite the differing impacts, Shivangi argued that both sources remain central to South Africa’s development path. “It is important to balance hydroelectricity and natural gas for

national energy access and security,” she said. “The combination can support climate change mitigation, reduce harmful pollutants and create economic opportunities.”

Her research calls for strategic policy action. “Policymakers should plan long-term energy policies that reduce CO₂ emissions,” Shivangi said. “The study offers evidence for decisions toward a sustainable energy future in South Africa.”

Shivangi’s findings contribute to ongoing discussions about energy transition in the country, guiding stakeholders in planning solutions for emissions reduction and sustainable development.

Shivangi Nilan Patel examines hydroelectricity and natural gas links to environmental sustainability.