Deep pockets will no longer suffice; we now need them to extend all the way down to our knees. The fuel price increases that took effect on Wednesday, 2 September will place further strain on an economy struggling to keep its head above water. Achieving National Treasury’s already modest growth forecast of 1.6% for 2026 will be difficult enough, never mind exceeding it.

Here is what the current fuel-price picture looks like: petrol 93 and petrol 95 both increased by R1.34 per litre, while the wholesale prices of 0.05% and 0.005% diesel rose by R2.94 and R3.15 per litre respectively, and wholesale illuminating paraffin increased by R2.13 per litre.

Inland prices now stand at R26.76 per litre for petrol 93, R26.92 for petrol 95, R29.11 for 500 ppm diesel, R30.05 for 50 ppm diesel and R20.89 for wholesale illuminating paraffin. Some households will be able to absorb this shock; most will not.
The war between the US and Iran has been one of the key drivers of the sharp rise in fuel prices. Although there have been intermittent peace talks, the conflict shows no signs of abating. A fuel-price recovery remains a distant prospect rather than a promise of relief.

Meanwhile, South Africa’s 17.8 million households will have to contend with the cumulative price increases that these fuel hikes will bring. Although the average household income is R17 030 a month, the median is only about R7 981, meaning that half of all households earn less than that amount. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) compiled by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) and published in June showed consumer prices continuing to rise, further eroding purchasing power.

Food already consumes a substantial share of the budgets of lower-income households. Because fuel is embedded in the cost of producing and transporting goods, repeated increases can intensify pressure on food prices and further reduce the amount families have available for other necessities.

Dr Mpho Lenoke, senior lecturer in the School of Economics at the North-West University’s (NWU’s) Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, says fuel-price increases caused by global economic pressures will raise transport costs and the prices of essential goods, with lower-income households bearing the heaviest burden.

“During 2026, we have seen more fuel-price increases than decreases. This is largely due to global economic forces that affect our domestic economy, and the economy must adjust whether we like it or not.

“The question is what this means for households that are already struggling. Food prices and the cost of commuting will rise, forcing households to revise budgets that are already under considerable strain.

“Food, healthcare products and other essential goods must be transported. When fuel prices rise, businesses increase their prices to recover the additional costs. Those at the lower end of the income scale tend to be hit hardest because they have the least room in their budgets to absorb higher prices.”

Prof. Waldo Krugell, an economist at the NWU, concurs, noting that the pressure on households is compounded by rising municipal rates.

“Discovery data already show that households are driving less, and it is not clear how much more they can economise. The overall pressure on households is evident in the low level of domestic demand, which is reflected in purchasing managers’ indices and consumer confidence indices.

“This week’s business confidence index, published by RMB and the Bureau for Economic Research, remained virtually unchanged at a low level. There is still some confidence in the retail sector, but the fact that the overall index remained at the low level recorded in the second quarter indicates that fuel-price shocks have had a significant effect on domestic demand. This is also reflected in business confidence.”

It is therefore no longer a question of households choosing to spend less; the fact is that they cannot afford to spend more.
It gets worse. The consequences keep snowballing. When looking at the country’s formal and informal transport sectors, the outlook is dire, according to NWU transport economist Dr Olebogeng Baikgaki.

Subsidised public transport operators face an immediate difficulty: their subsidies have already been budgeted for and will not automatically increase to accommodate higher fuel prices. Operators will therefore have to provide the same services with funding that now buys less.

Baikgaki warns that rising fuel, maintenance, labour and tyre costs could compel some operators to cut corners simply to remain viable. They may postpone vehicle servicing, use cheaper tyres or turn to less-qualified mechanics, potentially compromising vehicle safety and reliability. Some operators may also reduce their staff complements and drive the vehicles themselves, placing further pressure on employment.

The informal transport sector is even more exposed because it operates without direct government subsidies.

“Operators may have little choice but to pass higher fuel, tyre and maintenance costs directly on to passengers through fare increases,” he says.

Higher fares will hit low-income households hardest, potentially forcing them to reduce spending on essentials such as food and education.

“Transport is the heartbeat of the economy. If people cannot afford to travel, the consequences extend far beyond the transport sector: household disposable income declines, access to work and services becomes more difficult, and economic activity slows.”

As long as missiles continue to fly and drones continue to strike on the far side of the world, suffer the commuter and the consumer here at home.