Enigmatic and erratic, bold and belligerent. Floyd Shivambu walks the line between chaos and command like few other South African politicians do, with both his detractors and supporters asking: What is next for Floyd?
As has become the norm, Shivambu has recently evoked the ire of yet another of his political homes – the MK Party (MKP) – when he publicly stated his intentions to investigate the possibility of establishing a new political party.
This followed his removal as secretary-general of the MKP, accusations that he was planning to oust MKP founder and former president Jacob Zuma, and a fallout with Zuma’s daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla.
All of this came in the wake of his very public stints and spats with the ANC Youth League and his defection from the EFF after serving as its deputy president.
Professor Kedibone Phago, director of the North-West University’s School of Government Studies, says that for Shivambu’s political ambitions to succeed, he needs a focused, clearly defined strategy.
“Floyd Shivambu’s departure from the EFF to join the Umkhonto we Sizwe Party (MKP) was unexpected and runs counter to conventional political logic. From what we’ve observed, his exit appears to be strategically motivated, not merely by a desire to align with Jacob Zuma, but possibly to undermine Julius Malema’s EFF. In his recent media briefing, Shivambu branded the EFF a ‘cult’ and, even after stepping down as MKP’s secretary-general and declining an MP offer, he chose to maintain his MKP membership. That suggests he is keeping his foothold while preparing to launch a new political platform,” says Phago.
He also notes that Shivambu’s social media activity implies he is testing the waters for a new party that reflects his ideological leanings. But the barriers to entry in South Africa’s current political arena are formidable: smaller parties often struggle to gain traction or sustain themselves.
“For Shivambu to succeed, he needs a clearly defined ideological positioning and a robust strategy. He is distancing himself from both the EFF and MKP, yet remains firmly on the left. His appeal may lie among disenchanted EFF and MKP supporters, with marginal EFF–ANC crossover. However, without a solid base, he faces an uphill climb in future elections.
Practically speaking, he might be better served by joining an existing party to consolidate influence – unless he can build a strong voter base that directly challenges
the EFF or MKP in the forthcoming local government elections. Achieving early success in those contests will be critical to any credible bid for 2029.”
Phago also issues a warning that Shivambu would be wise to heed: “Floyd Shivambu is embarking on a perilous political path. His future hinges on whether he can translate ambition into a sustainable alternative. Failure to do so could spell a lasting setback for his career.”
So, what is next for Floyd? If he continues down the same path as before, he might well be anointed South Africa’s King of Political Chaos. That said, hasn’t he already?
