In June, South Africans celebrate Youth Month, but the harsh reality is there is often very little to celebrate, especially concerning current and future employment opportunities. This is in stark contrast with the 2023 theme for Youth Month, which is ‘Accelerating youth economic emancipation for a sustainable future’.
According to Prof Waldo Krugell from the North-West University’s Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey shows that since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in the second quarter of 2020, South Africa lost more than 2 million jobs, although many of those were regained by the first quarter of 2023, with much of the job gains in the knowledge-based formal sector.
“Job losses affected younger workers disproportionately,” explains Prof Kruger. “Trade and industrial policy strategy researcher Neva Makgetla writes that the pandemic increased the labour market’s return to qualifications: ‘It opened some doors for people who had managed to complete matric or obtained a university degree, but closed them for less-qualified workers.’ This provides food for thought on two other big issues of the day: the dire state of South Africa’s education system and the bigger role that technology and skills-based technical change is set to play in the economy. The impact of the Covid lockdown on schooling was devastating. According to the 2021 PIRLS (Progress in International Reading Literacy Study) report, 81% of Grade 4 learners in South Africa cannot read for meaning in any language. In contrast, Brazil’s average Grade 4 child is three years ahead of the average South African child. Only about half of a Grade 1 class matriculates, and about 30% of the young people between the ages of 15 and 24 are not employed and are also not receiving further education or training. This is a generational tragedy for which no quick fix exists.”
The dangers of artificial intelligence on youth employment
Prof Krugell also states that the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) adds to this tragedy: “These algorithms seem set to endanger routine white-collar office jobs that can be codified. ChatGPT will not level the playing field between those who can and cannot read and write – it will intensify the competition between the educated. Being able to read widely, analyse, summarise, synthesise and put it all together in a dissertation used to be the most important competency of someone with a postgraduate qualification, but large language models will change this. An undergraduate student with a bit of work experience and some AI help may now be able to compete with the honours-degree student, and the honours-degree student with the master’s-degree student. This distorts the signal that a formal qualification used to send. When you and everyone else who applies for a job sit in that interview, it is hard for the employer to determine who is the knowledgeable, hard-working team player they say they are. Until now, a degree has helped to provide some distinction, but after AI bots have done everyone’s writing, it is less clear what a degree means.”
According to him there are also opportunities to be unearthed with regards to this technology, but it requires a rethink to how AI is used.
“First, it is important to realise that whatever you are studying is like learning a language. The more words you know, the better you can join in the conversation. If you want to ask your GPT model questions or write its "prompts", it will help if you already know something. For young economists, this means you need to know something about economic history. How are you going to get a sensible macroeconomics essay about exchange rate crises from AI if you do not know to ask about the commercial and financial rand of the 1980s? This is also a reason to come to class and hear what the Prof has to say – all those years of experience and of reading things are at your disposal. Second, no-one can say: we did not learn it in our course. It is now so easy to learn something by yourself – the world is going to start expecting it. Third, a degree has always been about more than knowledge and skills. It helps young people to socialise into the world of work. Their study years are where they should learn to work hard and take responsibility. There are great opportunities to seize – attend a lecture, read a blog, listen to a podcast, and learn something.”
Prof Waldo Krugell
