South Africa’s exporters may soon find a wider door opening in Beijing, but whether they can fully walk through it will depend on preparation at home. China’s move to allow duty-free imports on selected South African products signals stronger economic ties, yet it is no silver bullet for broader trade challenges.

According to North-West University (NWU) economist Dr Mpho Lenoke, the bilateral trade framework cooperation move initiated by China and South Africa in early February 2026 carries both economic and strategic weight.

“Providing duty-free access to selected South African products would be economically and strategically significant,” said Dr Lenoke, from the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. “But its success will depend on product coverage, rules of origin and whether South Africa is ready on the supply side.”

China is South Africa’s largest trading partner, and tariff-free entry could make local goods more price-competitive. “Tariff elimination lowers landed costs for South African goods, improving price competitiveness relative to other exporters,” Dr Lenoke explained.

He added that the deal reinforces South Africa’s strategic position within the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS) bloc and the broader Global South trade agenda.

Some sectors could benefit more than others

In the short to medium term, sectors likely to benefit most are those where South Africa already has export capacity and where China has strong demand. These include agriculture and agro-processing, value-added minerals, automotive components and machinery, and inputs linked to the green economy.

However, Dr Lenoke cautioned that without targeted industrial policy, gains could remain concentrated. “Most benefits may accrue to primary exporters rather than manufacturing industries,” he said, warning that deeper structural reforms are needed to ensure value addition at home.

The trade agreement follows the United States imposing 30% tariffs on certain South African products. Could China fill the gap left by lower

exports to the US? Dr Lenoke is cautious. “China can act as a buffer for South Africa’s exports, but it is not a replacement for the West,” he said.

He noted that US imports tend to focus on differentiated manufactured goods, while China’s demand is more concentrated on commodities. “China is also a major price maker in commodities, which reduces South Africa’s bargaining power,” he added.

Sanitary and phytosanitary regulations may further limit export expansion.

Weighing up the risks

From a strategic standpoint, the agreement with China signals diversification rather than abandonment of Western markets. “It lowers the risk of geopolitical trade shocks and gives South Africa leverage in negotiations,” Dr Lenoke said.

Yet deeper reliance on China carries risks. “There is a dependency risk, a potential de-industrialisation risk and limited automatic technology transfer,” he warned. “Engagement with China must be managed carefully to avoid replacing one dependency with another.”

For South Africa, the message is clear: new markets offer opportunity, but only if matched with a strong domestic strategy.

Dr Mpho Lenoke