Not since the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq reshaped global security after 2001 or, more significantly, since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, has the international order undergone change on the scale we are witnessing today.
The US–Israeli war with Iran has proved more consequential for global energy security, trade and international stability than initially anticipated, while the US military intervention in Venezuela challenged established principles of national sovereignty and international law.
Beyond the headlines, however, the transatlantic alliance is under its greatest strain in decades, divided over Iran, Ukraine, trade, defence spending and the reliability of American security guarantees. America’s tariffs, export controls and industrial subsidies have turned trade into an instrument of state power. China, meanwhile, is intensifying military pressure on Taiwan, whose semiconductor industry lies at the heart of global electronics and artificial intelligence.
Prof. Barend Prinsloo, director of the Centre for Geopolitical Security and Strategy (CGSS) at the North-West University (NWU), explains that these seismic shifts are being driven by an undercurrent of intensifying competition for control over the currencies, energy resources, technologies and strategic minerals that will determine the global balance of power.
He also outlines several key considerations arising from a year that may yet prove to be a defining one in the early 21st century.
The dollar remains dominant, but the financial order is fragmenting
“The US dollar has remained the world’s leading reserve and trading currency in 2026, despite continued efforts by BRICS+ countries to reduce their dependence on it. What has changed is not the immediate position of the dollar, but the willingness of countries to explore alternatives. Central banks have accumulated more gold, certain states have expanded trade in their own currencies, and alternative payment mechanisms have received greater attention. We are not witnessing the sudden end of dollar dominance, but the gradual development of a more fragmented international financial system.”
Energy security has become a central geopolitical concern
“During 2026, energy security has moved to the centre of international competition. Governments are no longer discussing energy only in terms of climate change or economic development; they are treating reliable and affordable energy as a matter of national security. Countries must balance environmental commitments with the
immediate need to power industries, protect their economies and reduce their dependence on potentially hostile suppliers. This has simultaneously strengthened the strategic importance of fossil fuels, nuclear power, renewable energy, storage capacity and electricity infrastructure.”
AI has transformed electricity into a source of national power
“The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence has demonstrated that technological leadership ultimately depends on physical infrastructure. AI requires enormous data centres, advanced semiconductor facilities, extensive cooling systems and, above all, reliable electricity. In 2026, grid capacity has increasingly become a constraint on technological ambition. The global AI race has therefore developed into an energy race as well. Countries capable of expanding their generation and transmission capacity will have an advantage, while those with unreliable electricity systems risk being left behind, regardless of their scientific talent.”
Europe is preparing for a less dependable United States
“The transatlantic relationship has undergone a fundamental recalibration in 2026. Europe has increased defence spending and accelerated efforts to strengthen its military-industrial capacity because it can no longer assume that the United States will always carry the principal burden of European security. However, Europe remains dependent on American intelligence, logistics, advanced weapons and nuclear deterrence. What has emerged is not complete European strategic autonomy, but the beginning of a long and costly attempt to become less vulnerable to changes in American policy.”
Russia, China and Iran remain strategically connected
“Attempts to weaken the relationships among Russia, China and Iran have not produced a decisive realignment in 2026. These countries do not agree on every issue and should not be regarded as a perfectly unified alliance, but they share an interest in limiting American influence and reducing their vulnerability to Western sanctions. Russia’s economic dependence on China, Iran’s integration into BRICS and other alternative institutions, and their shared opposition to Western pressure give them strong reasons to continue cooperating. Their alignment has proved more durable than many Western policymakers may have anticipated.”
Globalisation has become increasingly weaponised
“Globalisation has not ended in 2026, but its character has changed significantly. Governments continue to depend on international trade, technology and investment, while simultaneously using tariffs, sanctions, export controls, industrial subsidies and access to strategic resources as instruments of national power. Economic interdependence, once presented as a path towards cooperation, has increasingly become a source of vulnerability and leverage. The emerging system is therefore not one of complete deglobalisation, but of weaponised globalisation, in which states carefully distinguish between dependencies they consider beneficial and those they regard as threats.”
For expert opinions and analysis on the events and trends shaping South Africa and the world, visit the CGSS Strategic Insights page.
Prof. Barend Prinsloo, director of the Centre for Geopolitical Security and Strategy (CGSS) at the North-West University
