The fall armyworm recently invaded Africa, devastating grain crops and thereby threatened food security. Entomologists of the North-West University's (NWU’s) Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management's Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Research Group developed a temperature-based development model that accurately predicted the global spread and establishment of this pest.

This model provides early warning of high-risk areas of establishment of the pest. The model, published during June 2018 in the CSIRO journal Pest Geography, predicted the Indian sub-continent was suitable for establishment of this pest and in August 2018 the invasion was reported.

According to the model, certain regions of Europe and Australia are also at risk.

Click here to read the original article that was published in Pest Geography.

For more information please phone Hanalene du Plessis at 084 491 0102 or Johnnie van den Berg at 073 170 1009.

This world map shows the high-risk areas where the Fall armyworm can establish itself.

 The Fall armyworm.