NWU Vaal experts’ prediction on Motion of no-confidence – Ina Gouws & Busi Khaba

Hanlie Smuts -- Tue, 03/01/2016 - 10:03

NWU Vaal experts’ prediction on Motion of no-confidence – Ina Gouws & Busi Khaba

Academics on the Vaal Triangle Campus of the North-West University (NWU Vaal) are in agreement:  it is unlikely that the Motion of No-Confidence against President Jacob Zuma, to be proposed by the DA on 1 March will be carried through.

Dr Ina Gouws and Ms Busi Khaba, both lecturers in the Political Sciences on the campus and political experts, see it as doubtful that the DA will see a different outcome than they did in September of 2015, when they raised the same motion against the President. 

Dr Gouws gives the background

The DA feels that there is a chance after the President abruptly sacked his previous Finance Minister, Nhlanhla Nene: a move that they saw as a reckless and irrational action. The effect of which was evident in the financial markets; this was only the start of the negative perceptions and undesirable opinion of President Zuma.

The flame was further fuelled when the President’s legal team acknowledging the President’s error in failing to adhere to the Public Protector’s findings on Nkandla.

The sharp criticism of President Zuma will not matter if the DA cannot gather enough votes on the day.  DA leader Mmusi Maimane asked the members of the ANC to recuse themselves from voting and/or requested a private ballot.  The request for a private ballot falls well within the rights of the DA, but the request to ANC members to refrain from voting seems a bit undemocratic.  Dr. Gouws anticipates that both these requests will be denied.  This brings the DA to the same situation as in September 2015: without the majority of votes that are needed for the motion to follow through. 

Busi Khaba agrees

Busi Khaba, lecturer in Political Sciences at the same campus, agrees.  The vote depends on the National Assembly, which is mostly constituted of ANC members.  ANC executive members in the National Assembly are still behind President Zuma.  She says that the DA should be aware of the fact the motion will probably not be carried through.  The repeated and renewed efforts from the DA will however further taint President Zuma’s reputation.

What if...

What if the members of Parliament surprise these political experts and the motion is followed through?  What will happen then? Khaba is of the opinion that Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa will be the best candidate to replace Zuma as the President.  Gouws on the other hand feels that the chances are so slim, that even debating such a question seems absurd.  Her choice in such extreme circumstances would however be Finance Minister Pravin Gorhan.  His sober way of looking at government and related issues, especially at the economy, will make him a good leader.